CoVid19, how does it affect you or Sim community?

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=rk=

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Finding himself totally alone in a shattered world with canned food to last him a lifetime
Yes, but did he find any toilet paper? Because after 8 hours of searching around, he'd found a lifetime of food, a working revolver, no working radios and he's already ready to commit suicide. What's up with that.
 

jtanabodee

Resource contributor
So, it look like social distancing is alive and well in Phoenix AZ.
I love that. It is the right thing to do before vaccine is available. The main point is to limit the sick persons who need hospitalization, that is to limit infected persons as low as possible. If the infection is widely spread, the percentage of sick people is the same but the number is too huge beyound health system can handle. That's what happens in Italy. Elderly left to die because there are no enough rooms, no enough respirators for them. So, people who get more chance to recover will be treated first. It is a pity, if one of those is in our family. It is the responsibility of everyone to do social distancing in community in order to limit the spread.
 
The main point is to limit the sick persons who need hospitalization, that is to limit infected persons as low as possible. If the infection is widely spread, the percentage of sick people is the same but the number is too huge beyound health system can handle. That's what happens in Italy. Elderly left to die because there are no enough rooms, no enough respirators for them. So, people who get more chance to recover will be treated first. It is a pity, if one of those is in our family. It is the responsibility of everyone to do social distancing in community in order to limit the spread.
Triage, the separation and treatment of patients by likelihood of survival, is what the military does on a battlefield, and what emergency services do after major natural disasters such as earthquakes where there are many who have suffered traumatic injuries, and hospitals have limited space and supplies.

As for social separation, as necessary as it is to keep the infected from infecting others, we have a lot of young people who are ignoring the situation in order to party, party, party at beaches during spring break. If they become infected they will return to their homes across the country and continue the spread of the virus.
You are in Thailand yes? I hope things are different where you are Tic and that you and your family and countrymen stay safe. I have many friends there that I am worried about.



Yes, but did he find any toilet paper? Because after 8 hours of searching around, he'd found a lifetime of food, a working revolver, no working radios and he's already ready to commit suicide. What's up with that.
He started out in the bank, and ended up with library books he couldn't read, soooo...I'm thinking he had plenty of paper items which were suitable for toilet paper.

On a brighter note, I decided to get out and see what was up in the stores this morning and found sufficient food items to once again feel in control.

I'm not talking about hoarding, I am on the road a lot and I got the same stuff I always get, things that freeze well like ingredients for spaghetti sauce, ingredients for beef and bean burritos, and bacon and egg breakfast burritos.
Vegetables, onions and broths for nutritious soups and curries are quick and easy and usually make a few dinners. I even found bottled water, toilet paper, and paper towels, beer and limes as well as milk and a bag of potatoes for a friend.

Yeah, there are still a lot of items missing in the stores, but the staffs in every store were all working hard to stock the shelves, and there were plenty of options if you are a creative home cook with basic spices.

I visited a Mexican market, an Asian Market, a Food 4 Less, and a 99 cent Only store and between them I was able to fill in most of my needs in about three hours.
Good thing too since our governor has apparently just ordered Californians to stay at home. Can't wait to hear the details.....

Best Regards and NGWYH...A
Gary
 

jtanabodee

Resource contributor
You are in Thailand yes? I hope things are different where you are
Yes, exactly things are very different here. All the social gathering places are closed now. Sport clubs, football fields, tennis courts, swimming pools, night clubs, pubs, theaters etc. are ordered to be closed now. Some shopping centers are considering to be closed as well. The beaches are ok but not so many people there. Everyone seems to understand now how important to be in their homes.
 

=rk=

Resource contributor
I'm thinking of opening up a, "You're OK ;)" clinic. I know the hospitals are overwhelmed, I can only imagine urgent care and community health clinics. Heck, I suspect a condition that would probably qualify for "elective" surgery and I figure I'll just Steve Jobs it for now, no sense throwing one more monkey wrench into the machine.
So I was thinking, there has to be a whole bunch of people in my same position. We already know that the "truth" is some Olympian concept, something people with power wield and it's pretty much beyond our means. Besides, knowing the truth implies you have options to affect it. In the end, we really just want to hear we are "ok," at least for now. So if the truth is less important than getting some self governance into your condition, it might be something to calm the nerves.

It seems like a great idea.
 

Heretic

Resource contributor
Seems pretty solid from up here. Australia looks like they have about 100 planes flying and Africa is a ghost town - and what's that big row of planes leaving the eastern seaboard?
Homebound evacuation flights for holidaymakers?

I think this is cognitive bias. How we choose the more comforting observations in a crisis. What if they aren't gluttons? What if they are futurists, who have read all the same novels I've read, who agree that a future without air travel, is a harbinger to fundamental changes in society?
Ah, come on now. There's always telephones, the internet and, heck, even letters.
After 12+ years of hardly sustainable growth and mass tourism fueled by overly cheap flights paid for by the workforce, the dent caused by current events might just be what the industry needs to pause, rethink and adapt. It's like the occasional forest fire. Bad in the short term, but in the long run, a chance for reorganization and recovery.

That's comforting, because I see the shelves here are still empty. With all the solid distribution this robust society has going for it, you'd think they'd be able to get enough paper towels after a week. It's like. "well shucks ya, society keeps chugging along, cranking out more toilet paper to meet the increased demand and someone, somewhere is making an immense mountain of TP, we just haven't found it on Google Earth yet." At least the Feds are about to print some up, too.
The TP supply crisis is caused by people being dumb and selfish, not because of inadequate production and stocks. If everybody carried on as usual regarding meeting one's needs for groceries and household utensils, there would not be a crisis at all.


Yes, exactly things are very different here. All the social gathering places are closed now. Sport clubs, football fields, tennis courts, swimming pools, night clubs, pubs, theaters etc. are ordered to be closed now. Some shopping centers are considering to be closed as well. The beaches are ok but not so many people there. Everyone seems to understand now how important to be in their homes.
It's basically the same here in Europe. In Germany, Bavaria implemented some degree of curfew, but mostly aimed to prevent larger groups from gathering. You can still go for groceries or take a walk outside alone if you want.
We'll see if the rest of the country will follow suit.
 

DragonflightDesign

Resource contributor
You'll like this... or maybe not. Lifted from the daily stream that arrives from avherald.com.

//-------------------------------
An Iberia Airbus A340-600, registration EC-KZI performing positioning flight IB-6453 from Madrid,SP (Spain) to Guayaquil (Ecuador) with no passengers and 11 crew, was enroute at FL410 about 230nm northeast of Guayaquil and about 90nm northeast of Quito (Ecuador) when the crew was forced to divert to Quito after the Mayoress of Guyaquil had ordered city vehicles to invade Guyaquil Aerodrome and occupy the runway to prevent the landing of the Iberia (as well as a later scheduled KLM) arrival. The aircraft landed safely in Quito.

Later the same evening a KLM Boeing 777-200, registration PH-BQI, was scheduled to perform flight KL-755 from Quito to Guayaquil and further on to Amsterdam (Netherlands), however, needed to skip Guyaquil and operated directly from Quito to Amsterdam. Ecuador's government had agreed to both re-patriation flights of Spanish and Dutch citizens. The aircraft were set to arrive just with crew and no passengers and were to pick up their citizens. 170 Dutch citizens boarded the Boeing 777-200 in Quito. About 200 Spanish and Dutch citizens were waiting for their Iberia and KLM aircraft in Guayaquil.

The Mayoress claimed the Iberia aircraft was arriving with 11 passengers and stated, Ecuador's government had ordered nobody was allowed to enter or leave Guayaquil due to the Corona pandemic. Sending an aircraft with 11 passengers to enter Guayaquil would thus violating the law and endanger local population, in particular as the aircraft came from Spain, the current focus of Corona infections into Ecuador. She assumed responsibility for instructing city vehicles to br driven onto the runway. The government stated that the flights had been coordinated with the Emergency Operations Committee, the only authority having jurisdiction over the airport and its operation at the time. Ecuador's Ministry of Transport blamed Guayaquil's mayor's office for hindering coordinated air traffic within emergency operations and disobeying specific orders issued under emergency conditions, the city officials will be kept responsible. The government appeals to the sanity of the local authorities. Ecuador's prosecution office have opened an investigation against the Mayoress of Guyauil claiming, she had no juridiction over the airport and endangered the foreign nationals, who had already moved to the airport. The occupied runway and interviews in Spanish by local media (El Mundo):

youtube=bLdeNBOFsJk
 

hairyspin

Resource contributor
The TP supply crisis is caused by people being dumb and selfish, not because of inadequate production and stocks. If everybody carried on as usual regarding meeting one's needs for groceries and household utensils, there would not be a crisis at all.
With apologies for the blunt language, a little perspective:—


IMG_1686.JPG



Bizarre. And 20 sheets per trip to the bog seems a little extravagant, but what a bonus for Dyno-Rod and their ilk. :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
 
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hairyspin

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Still, look on the bright side: phone calls about the motor accident in which I wasn’t to blame have dried up.
 

scruffyduck

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This extract is not mine but was written by Rod Liddle in the UK Spectator Magazine of March 12, 2020. It is 'very' UK in terminology but you might get the gist :)

"Hulking fat chavs pushing shopping trolleys full of lavatory paper back to their Nissan Micras. I can’t think of a better image to sum up the coronavirus crisis right now. I saw a bunch of them outside my local branch of Morrisons on Sunday morning, their expressions uniformly defiant and smug. One family had at least ten multipacks in their trolley — and nothing else. Surely one cannot live on toilet tissue alone, no matter how agreeably scented it might be? I assumed they were part of the panic-buying crowd, although having seen the size of their arses it may well be that this was simply their requisite amount for a single day of copious wiping."

* Chav = a young person of a type characterized by brash and loutish behaviour
 

=rk=

Resource contributor
The TP supply crisis is caused by people being dumb and selfish, not because of inadequate production and stocks. If everybody carried on as usual regarding meeting one's needs for groceries and household utensils, there would not be a crisis at all.
Why, because that is what seems to be the most logical conclusion? How is that not cognitive bias? You would have to interview every hoarder to know if they were dumb and you'd have to review a reasonable percentage of all mills and warehouses to verify your prediction about inventory.

"Hello, this is the local supermarket and we'd like to order our weekly supply of toilet paper, and we'd like 2 cases."
"Ok, this is the central distribution warehouse and we'll have those on the truck for Wednesday's delivery."

But those shelves remain empty. And there's no bread, to speak of either, it keeps coming in little spurts. I've already taken to Soviet style shopping, where I go to the store every day to see if the things I want are available. I'd probably pay $10 for a bottle of alcohol, because I work for the public, so if anyone knows anyone...

Yesterday, I must have made an Oroweat shipment and I got some of the good Oatnut bread. Today, I saw they'd gotten a Dave's Killer Bread delivery and I almost got some of that, until I remembered the whole Oroweat loaf I had to burn through. That's like the opposite of hoarding and it's my point, it just seems like people can't really hoard bread, what do they do, freeze it? "Gosh it is truly the End Times, I guess we'll go ahead and add bread to our daily diet." The empty flour shelf, I can understand. Once all the stores burn down, you'll have to grind wheat to get your flour, or, gawd who knows, chew grass, so it's prudent to stock up now.

I panic buy toaster waffles. Not in bulk, more like a quiet requiem. My son showed me a $24 NY steak he'd bought for similar reasons. It had a Japanese name and I don't know if that meant that it had been produced locally, using Japanese techniques, or if it had been raised in Japan and flown here to sell. I really must remember to ask him how he liked it, we do what we can.

Meanwhile, speaking of simulatable things

‘In The Fight Of Our Lives’: American Airlines CEO Cancels 55,000 Flights, Grounds Almost 1/2 Fleet
“This is a crisis unlike any we’ve faced in the past. Together, we will continue to be aggressive on all fronts so that we ensure American’s future is intact,” AA President Robert Isom said in a letter to employees.

I wondered if that meant they will add defensive weaponry to airplanes flying illegal drugs through international fronts. I'd also had to reread it, because I'd thought it said "America's future" and he could just as easily have been referring to flight simulation's future. Did anyone think to simulate this turn of events? Don't look at me, I saw flight as the backbone of civilization, not some frivolous luxury to be commoditized, like toilet paper. It seems like a natural extension put that way; commode, commoditize.

Apparently the virus is coming to resemble the "Great Filter," it's also a relative boon to nerds. We all know the Fermi Paradox, right? It's what relates abiogenesis to the Kardashev scale, which basically tries to explain why "planeterism" isn't a term, as is globalism. We are learning that countries that are sufficiently civilized, that take measures to prevent epidemics, like South Korea, have a 1% mortality rate among infected. Countries that have a laissez faire attitude about protection, where you cannot buy gas (petrol) without hugging someone, like Italy, have an 8% mortality rate among infected. They are calling Italy's current measures "draconian" in The Guardian, a fairly neutral publication.

So, South Korea, drive through testing; Italy, the draconian civilization facing extinction. Makes one wonder how countries that were formerly just draconian are handling the situation. There is some relief for nerds however, particularly if they live in one of the harder hit countries and they do not smoke.
 

hairyspin

Resource contributor
Italy’s death rate from the virus reflects the population - the highest proportion of elderly people in Europe. I’m not offering any more comment than that, friends have families in the Milan area and are very worried for them.
 

=rk=

Resource contributor
Italy’s death rate from the virus reflects the population - the highest proportion of elderly people in Europe. I’m not offering any more comment than that, friends have families in the Milan area and are very worried for them.
Oh right, good point. Italy isn’t called draconian because they are too friendly, it is because they have too many octogenarians.

Not in any way a reflection of that societies preparedness for epidemic, or developed level of civilization.
 

hairyspin

Resource contributor
I'm not arguing with you Rick, just remarking on the Italian people's suffering at present. It's a lovely country too, and I found them most hospitable to me as a visitor. You'd enjoy it. All the more upsetting as a result.
 

=rk=

Resource contributor
I was there in 1976. The Coliseum seemed like it was filled with cats. It was the year of the American Revolution Bicentennial and it was also the height of the Communist revolution. There were hammer and sickle and "CCCP" graffiti everywhere and rows of propaganda posters, all the same, for fifty or a hundred, then the pattern would switch. The West seemed certain Italy would fall to Communism, as had Romania, but it never transpired. Yupi Du was incredibly popular in theaters at the time and I bought a t shirt.
There was still visible war damage in all the major cities, Rome, Paris and London and I remember walking into a grotto at the Catacombs and there were these large porcelain squares on the floor up against one wall. They looked like the base of a shower, except the hole was big enough for a soccer ball, and there were these foot pads at the two near corners, presumably to give you traction to not fall in. Someone told me those were latrines, there was no running water anywhere near. I was pick pocketed, hopefully for the last time in my life, on the fourth of July at a disco in Florence decorated in red, white and blue crepe ribbons. They were playing Bee Gees Jive Talkin' and the place was packed.

In England, we took a trip to Stonehenge and Stratford-upon-Avon. In those days, there was no fence and one could wander among the stones. By the time we'd gotten to the Globe Theatre, I'd learned the driver had flown Spitfires in the war. I've never seen Shakespeare's residence, but I've been in his parking lot, because I stayed on the bus to pump the driver about what he'd experienced. I remember thinking how social a country England is, that a fighter pilot could retire to drive tour buses at his leisure. While in America, it seemed, they had to do a stint with the commercial airlines, as a general rule, before taking off the wings.

Altogether, fond memories, I turned 16 that Summer. Italy easily had had the worst sanitation and litter, in France we'd had bidets to use. We caught the girls washing their underwear in them and joyfully informed their purpose. I found all of Europe to be much more hospitable than anywhere I knew of in America and no one country stood out in that regard. We were kids on a Scholastic International tour, what would one expect. You to assume I hadn't been there, maybe. Don't be too upset at any one countries distress, lest you run out of empathy for the rest.
 

hairyspin

Resource contributor
I knew you’d enjoy the country - happy memories indeed. :cool: When you get a chance to go back, you’ll find the sanitation transformed and the litter hard to find. They take a real pride in their country, unlike almost all of the UK. But the people are still great!
 
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DragonflightDesign

Resource contributor
You picked a good year Rick. That was the hottest summer in living memory - wall-to-wall sunshine every day from June to September in the UK.
 

=rk=

Resource contributor
Yes, I remember getting off the 747 at what seemed like midnight, the Earth is definitely curved, btw and they'd parked us way over in a corner of the airport, in Rome. It was smoking hot and we had to walk between a long line of Caribinieri holding fully automatic carbines, to the terminal. That was intimidating. Later I woke to see an orange basketball of the sun rise and it was already hotter than a California summer afternoon.

The thing that stood out about the Italians, was their freedom. They seemed to do anything they pleased, without intimidation and this, for example, extended to parking. This impressed a young man in the Age of Aquarius. In the heart of what was not even a twinkle in it's father's eye of the European Union, they managed to be so free, that their cranky youth had convinced the world they were going Commie. It was likely a practical joke, because, as the descendants of former world rulers, they had seemingly ingrained, a grand sense of humor and timing.

Small kernel of good news, I found alcohol yesterday. Insider tip alert: Home Depot. Pretty sure fuel alcohol will kill as many germs as isopropyl alcohol and they are actually the same thing. I also found TP, I'd stuffed a package under the back seat for car camping and emergencies, so it emerged. I also started a little research, because to me, this is a phenomenon.

So here's a botique TP supplier, 100% green and recycled and all that. They charge $52 for a case of 48 bamboo paper rolls and they are wiped out, so to speak.

Here is a website that will help you zero in on the metric of exactly when to panic.

Here's evidence that one sector of the economy is all green lights.

Like American Airlines, these guys are also entering uncharted territory.

Toilet paper has a become the ultimate symbol of the panic buying; it's seemingly scooped up as soon as new rolls hit the shelves.
Companies that help supply these everyday paper products are stunned and trying to adjust to this rapidly evolving new normal in consumer behavior.
They're faced with tradeoffs. Many were already operating their manufacturing facilities 24/7 prior to the pandemic. Now, some are limiting their facilities to essential workers and contractors. It's unclear, however, what they will do in the event that those workers get sick.

"If you ask me why everyone is grabbing toilet paper, I can't really explain it," said Tom Sellars, CEO of Sellars Absorbent Materials in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. His company is a processor and converter of paper and related products. "It's not like we are suddenly using more of it. But the surge in demand could strain the supply chain," he said.
You know, it does not sound like "business as usual," to me, but I can explain it. Having lived that former life of "mobility with means," I learned there were certain essentials. It gave me the experience to know to set a TP stash long before it became fashionable. There are people, entrepreneurs, who ply these routes, like travelling Fuller Brush vendors and you can encounter them on the trails of national parks and in the train stations and airports of Europe. TP is bulky, but it sells. As do soaps, toiletries, batteries, etc.

The thing about panic buying, is that a person does it to prevent the repetition of bad experiences. Hunger, Freezing, Security and that time we had to go without TP for extended duration. It does not add up.
Also, you could not model this, you could not simulate this behavior in an AI experiment. Picture it:

"Look, the little suckers are buying up all the toilet paper! They don't have the means to adequately provision themselves for any duration of significance, but they are already prepared to void it. That is the kind of foresight, you just can't program into a society!"
 
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hairyspin

Resource contributor
Fuel alcohol can be any, or a mixture of, methanol, denatured ethanol or isopropanol. All likely to do the job.

Just nobody drink the stuff, please! :eek:
 
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